Relationship between the 1997/98 El Ni?o and 1999/2001 La Ni?a events and oil palm tree production in Tumaco, Southwestern Colombia

摘要

Although the relationship between ENSO events and oceanographic andmeteorological conditions of Southwestern Colombia is well-known, verylittle work has been done to assess the related socio-economic impacts. Thisis the first effort made to determine the effect of such events on localclimate and the impact of this variability on oil palm tree (Elaeis guineensis) production inthe Tumaco municipality, which is located on Colombia's Pacific coast.First, we studied the correlation between sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTA) in the various El Niño regions and those observed off Tumaco.Next, we scrutinized the ENSO impact on regional climatic indicators, e.g.active solar radiation (hrs/day), air temperature (°C), and rain (mm).Finally, we analyzed the relationship between ENSO, Tumaco climatevariability, and oil palm production (tons/hectare-month). Hours of activeradiation increased (decreased) under El Niño (La Niña) conditions,as did average monthly precipitation rates and air temperature. ENSO-relatedclimatic variability also had an important effect on the differentdevelopmental stages of the oil palm tree, thereby affecting its production.The worst scenario was found during La Niña, when reduced intensity ofthe rainy season (second semester) caused severe droughts in the region.