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From hydrological modelling to decision support

机译:从水文建模到决策支持

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Decision support for planning and management of water resources needs toconsider many target criteria simultaneously like water availability, waterquality, flood protection, agriculture, ecology, etc. Hydrologic modelsprovide information about the water balance components and are fundamentalfor the simulation of ecological processes. Objective of this contribution isto discuss the suitability of classical hydrologic models on one hand and ofcomplex eco-hydrologic models on the other hand to be used as part ofdecision support systems. The discussion is based on results from two modelcomparison studies. It becomes clear that none of the hydrologic modelstested fulfils all requirements in an optimal sense. Regarding the simulationof water quality parameters like nitrogen leaching a high uncertainty needsto be considered. Recommended for decision support is a hybrid metamodelapproach, which comprises a hydrologic model, empirical relationships for theless dynamic processes and makes use of simulation results from complexeco-hydrologic models through second-order modelling at a generalized level.
机译:水资源规划和管理的决策支持需要同时考虑许多目标标准,例如水的可利用性,水质,防洪,农业,生态等。水文模型提供有关水平衡组成部分的信息,是模拟生态过程的基础。该贡献的目的是一方面讨论经典水文模型的适用性,另一方面讨论复杂生态水文模型作为决策支持系统的一部分的适用性。讨论基于两个模型比较研究的结果。显然,所测试的水文模型均未在最佳意义上满足所有要求。关于模拟水质参数(如氮浸出),需要考虑很高的不确定性。推荐用于决策支持的是一种混合元模型方法,该方法包括水文模型,无动态过程的经验关系,并利用广义生态水文模型到二阶建模的模拟结果。

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