Classification and Prioritization of Negative Factors Affecting on Mangrove Forests Using Delphi Method (a Case Study: Mangrove Forests of Hormozgan Province, Iran)

摘要

Generally, planning and prioritizing managerial operations and also providing appropriate tools for mitigating destructive consequences of stresses and disturbances affecting on forest ecosystems requires classification and prioritizing of these negative factors. Among different approaches for ranking and prioritizing, Delphi method due to its content validity, high flexibility, multidisciplinary nature and also using in the wide range of geographical area is an appropriate tool for prioritizing of multiple environmental stresses in various ecosystems. Thus, in this study, Delphi method was used for prioritization of stresses and disturbances affecting on mangrove forests. Results showed that based on current position and status of mangrove forests in Iran, stresses and disturbances resulting resulted from anthropogenic factors compared to other negatively effecting factors have higher importance coefficient. Results also showed that storm, drought and air temperature among meteorological factors placed in latest ranks, while sea level rise compared to other factors has more importance and priority. Finally it can be said that results of the this study could be used as decision making supporting tool for sustainable planning and management of mangrove forests in Iran and other similar mangroves in coastal areas of Persian Gulf.