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Empirical test of the Ricardian Equivalence in the Kingdom of Lesotho

机译:莱索托王国里卡德等效性的实证检验

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摘要

The objective of this paper is to test the existence of Ricardian Equivalence in Lesotho using annual data for two sample periods, 1980–2014 and 1988–2014. This proposition is important and has crucial implications for tax policy. Household consumption, government debt, government expenditure, GDP per capita, population growth and inflation are variables which are used for this analysis. The study used ARDL cointegration approach to investigate the relationship between these variables. The study found that there is long run equilibrium relationship among the variables in two sample periods. The results show that an increase in government debt or government expenditure will decrease household consumption per capita. This implies that the Ricardian Equivalence does hold for Lesotho. The results also imply that fiscal policy is an ineffective tool to stabilize the economy. Lesotho has limited fiscal flexibility, and it will be difficult or challenging to increase private consumption and economic growth, particularly during economic downturn.
机译:本文的目的是使用两个样本时期(1980-2014年和1988-2014年)的年度数据来检验莱索托的Ricardian等价性。这一主张很重要,对税收政策具有至关重要的意义。家庭消费,政府债务,政府支出,人均GDP,人口增长和通货膨胀是用于此分析的变量。该研究使用ARDL协整方法研究了这些变量之间的关系。研究发现,在两个样本期间,变量之间存在长期均衡关系。结果表明,政府债务或政府支出的增加将减少人均家庭消费。这意味着莱索托的确对莱索托成立。结果还暗示,财政政策不是稳定经济的有效工具。莱索托的财政灵活性有限,增加私人消费和经济增长将是困难或挑战,特别是在经济低迷时期。

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