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Millennium-long summer temperature variations in the European Alps as reconstructed from tree rings

机译:由树环重建的欧洲阿尔卑斯山千年千年的夏季温度变化

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摘要

This paper presents a reconstruction of the summer temperatures over theGreater Alpine Region (44.05°–47.41° N, 6.43°–13° E) duringthe last millennium based on a network of 38 multi-centennial larch andstone pine chronologies. Tree ring series are standardized using anAdaptative Regional Growth Curve, which attempts to remove the age effectfrom the low frequency variations in the series. The proxies are calibratedusing the June to August mean temperatures from the HISTALP high-elevationtemperature time series spanning the 1818–2003. The method combines ananalogue technique, which is able to extend the too short tree-ring series,an artificial neural network technique for an optimal non-linear calibrationincluding a bootstrap technique for calculating error assessment on thereconstruction. About 50% of the temperature variance is reconstructed.Low-elevation instrumental data back to 1760 compared to their instrumentaltarget data reveal divergence between (warmer) early instrumentalmeasurements and (colder) proxy estimates. The proxy record indicates coolconditions, from the mid-11th century to the mid-12th century, related tothe Oort solar minimum followed by a short Medieval Warm Period (1200–1420).The Little Ice Age (1420–1830) appears particularly cold between 1420 and1820 with summers that are 0.8 °C cooler than the 1901–2000 period. Thenew record suggests that the persistency of the late 20th century warmingtrend is unprecedented. It also reveals significant similarities with otheralpine reconstructions.
机译:本文基于一个由38个百年落叶松和石松年表组成的网络,提出了上一千年大高山地区夏季气温的重建(44.05°–47.41°N,6.43°–13°E)。树环系列使用“适应性区域生长曲线”进行了标准化,该曲线试图消除序列中低频变化的年龄效应。使用HISTALP高海拔温度时间序列中跨1818-2003年的6月到8月的平均温度来校准代理。该方法结合了能够扩展太短的树环序列的模拟技术,用于最佳非线性校准的人工神经网络技术,包括用于计算构造误差评估的自举技术。重建了约50%的温度变化.1760年的低海拔仪器数据与其仪器目标数据相比,揭示了(较暖的)早期仪器测量值与(较冷的)代理估算值之间的差异。代理记录表明,从11世纪中叶到12世纪中叶的凉爽条件与奥尔特太阳最低温度有关,随后是短暂的中世纪暖期(1200–1420)。小冰河时代(1420–1830)在此期间尤为寒冷。 1420和1820年夏季温度比1901-2000年低0.8°C。新记录表明,20世纪后期变暖趋势的持续性是前所未有的。它还揭示了与其他高山重建的显着相似之处。

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