Long term January–March and May–August temperature reconstructions from tree-ring records from Bosnia and Herzegovina

摘要

We present the first spring and summer temperature reconstruction for the north-western part of the Balkan Peninsula. The reconstruction is based on tree-ring width measurements from 7 representative black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) sites in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). We found a significant, positive influence of above-average January–March temperatures on 4 sites (Blace, Peru?ica, ?ator, Konjuh) and a negative influence of above-average May–August temperatures and a positive relationship with an above-average sum of May–August precipitation on tree-ring width formation from 3 sites (Krivaja, Prusac, ?ipovo). A 31-yr running correlation between temperature and precipitation of the May–August period and tree-ring indices gave a stable relationship between 1901 and the 1960s, after which values of correlation coefficients decrease to the level of significance. A change in summer cyclones in the central part of the Adriatic Sea is presented as a possible cause of the divergence with the climate signal. In the period of calibration and verification of the linear model for the group of 3 sites (Krivaja, Prusac, ?ipovo), the best relationship was found between tree-ring indices and mean May–August temperatures of the current year. For the group of 4 sites (Blace, Peru?ica, ?ator, Konjuh), the relationship between tree-ring indices and mean January–March temperatures of the current year is the strongest. The developed models were used for reconstruction of May–August temperatures for BiH for the period 1701–1901 and January–March temperatures for the period 1685–1901. Using the method of percentiles (85th and 15th) we identified extreme hot/cool summers and warm/cold springs and compared them to available documentary historical sources and other reconstructions from the broader region.