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Spatio-temporal variability of Arctic summer temperatures over the past 2 millennia

机译:过去两千年北极夏季温度的时空变化

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In this article, the first spatially resolved and millennium-length summer (June–August) temperature reconstruction over the Arctic and sub-Arctic domain (north of 60°?N) is presented. It is based on a set of 44 annually dated temperature-sensitive proxy archives of various types from the revised PAGES2k database supplemented with six new recently updated proxy records. As a major advance, an extension of the Bayesian BARCAST climate field (CF) reconstruction technique provides a means to treat climate archives with dating uncertainties. This results not only in a more precise reconstruction but additionally enables joint probabilistic constraints to be imposed on the chronologies of the used archives. The new seasonal CF reconstruction for the Arctic region can be shown to be skilful for the majority of the terrestrial nodes. The decrease in the proxy data density back in time, however, limits the analyses in the spatial domain to the period after 750?CE, while the spatially averaged reconstruction covers the entire time interval of 1–2002?CE.The centennial to millennial evolution of the reconstructed temperature is in good agreement with a general pattern that was inferred in recent studies for the Arctic and its subregions. In particular, the reconstruction shows a pronounced Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; here ca.?920–1060?CE), which was characterised by a sequence of extremely warm decades over the whole domain. The medieval warming was followed by a gradual cooling into the Little Ice Age (LIA), with 1766–1865?CE as the longest centennial-scale cold period, culminating around 1811–1820?CE for most of the target region.In total over 600 independent realisations of the temperature CF were generated. As showcased for local and regional trends and temperature anomalies, operating in a probabilistic framework directly results in comprehensive uncertainty estimates, even for complex analyses. For the presented multi-scale trend analysis, for example, the spread in different paths across the reconstruction ensemble prevents a robust analysis of features at timescales shorter than ca.?30?years. For the spatial reconstruction, the benefit of using the spatially resolved reconstruction ensemble is demonstrated by focusing on the regional expression of the recent warming and the MCA. While our analysis shows that the peak MCA summer temperatures were as high as in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, the spatial coherence of extreme years over the last decades of the reconstruction (1980s onwards) seems unprecedented at least back until 750?CE. However, statistical testing could not provide conclusive support of the contemporary warming to exceed the peak of the MCA in terms of the pan-Arctic mean summer temperatures: the reconstruction cannot be extended reliably past 2002?CE due to lack of proxy data and thus the most recent warming is not captured.
机译:在本文中,介绍了北极和亚北极地区(北纬60°N以北)的第一个空间解析和千年长度的夏季(6月至8月)温度重构。它基于一组来自修订后的PAGES2k数据库的44种不同类型的年度日期的温度敏感代理存档,并补充了六个新近更新的代理记录。作为一项重大进步,贝叶斯BARCAST气候场(CF)重建技术的扩展提供了一种处理日期不确定的气候档案的方法。这不仅导致更精确的重建,而且还使联合概率约束可以强加于所用档案的时间顺序上。北极地区新的季节性CF重建在大多数陆地节点上都表现得非常熟练。但是,随着时间的流逝,代理数据密度的下降将空间范围内的分析限制在750?CE之后的时期,而空间平均重建覆盖了1–2002?CE的整个时间间隔。重建温度的变化与最近对北极及其次区域的研究推断出的一般模式非常吻合。特别是,重建过程显示出明显的中世纪气候异常(MCA;此处约为920-1060CE),其特征是整个区域经历了几十年的极度温暖。中世纪的变暖之后逐渐进入小冰期(LIA),1766–1865?CE是最长的百年尺度的冷期,在大多数目标地区达到1811–1820?CE。生成了600个独立的温度CF实现。正如针对本地和区域趋势以及温度异常所展示的那样,即使在进行复杂分析的情况下,在概率框架中运行也会直接导致全面的不确定性估计。例如,对于所提出的多尺度趋势分析,整个重建集合中不同路径上的分布阻碍了在小于约30年的时间尺度上对特征进行稳健的分析。对于空间重建,通过关注近期变暖和MCA的区域表达,可以证明使用空间分解重建合奏的好处。虽然我们的分析表明,夏季MCA的峰值温度高达20世纪末和21世纪初,但重建的最后几十年(1980年代开始)以来,极端年份的空间连贯性似乎空前,至少可以追溯到750?CE。但是,统计测试无法就北极夏季平均温度就现代变暖提供超过MCA峰值的结论性支持:由于缺乏替代数据,重建工作无法可靠地扩展到2002?CE之后。未捕获最新的变暖。

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