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Study on the Interaction between International Commodity Price and China’s Demand

机译:国际商品价格与中国需求的互动关系研究

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摘要

Based on monthly data and VAR models from March 2002 to December 2015, this paper studies the interaction between international commodity price and China’s demand. The results show that the impact of China’s demand can to a certain extent guide the fluctuation of commodity prices, while this impact is insignificant. Over time, the shock of commodity prices has exerted an increasingly effect on the changes in China’s demand. In the context of the drastic drop of commodity prices and the slowdown of international economic growth, China should pay close attention to other factors that affect the volatility of commodity prices, such as speculative investment factors, the monetary policy of the world’s major economies and take full advantage of today’s low commodity prices and take muscular internationalization approach style="font-family:;" "=""> style="font-family:Verdana;">to buying important commodities cheaply for eventual global market improvement and selling on the macroeconomic trendlines.
机译:本文基于2002年3月至2015年12月的月度数据和VAR模型,研究了国际商品价格与中国需求之间的相互作用。结果表明,中国需求的影响可以在一定程度上指导商品价格的波动,而这种影响微不足道。随着时间的流逝,大宗商品价格的冲击对中国需求的变化产生了越来越大的影响。在大宗商品价格急剧下跌和国际经济增长放缓的背景下,中国应密切关注影响大宗商品价格波动的其他因素,例如投机性投资因素,世界主要经济体的货币政策,并采取相应措施。充分利用当今商品价格低廉的优势,并采取强硬的国际化方法 style =“ font-family :;” “ =”“> style =” font-family:Verdana;“>廉价购买重要商品以最终改善全球市场,并在宏观经济趋势线上进行抛售。

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