One Example of Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method for Predicting in Medicine

摘要

Coronary heart disease is one of the most frequent causes of death in Ukraine. With the purpose of conducting adequate preventive work and planning the provision of specialized medical care for patients with coronary heart disease, the proposed paper predicts the prevalence of this disease in the next 10 years. The problem of prediction is solved by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method. An increasing of the incidence of coronary heart disease to 35041.21 per 100,000 population in 2025 is predicted.