Participatory modelling and foresight as an entry point for analyzing extensive livestock systems and territorial co-evolution processes

摘要

Participatory modelling has to deal with strong constraints related to the expression and sharing of viewpoints and to the intelligibility of models, which implies that simplifications and trade-offs must be made. Our hypothesis is that the mediation that takes place during the foresight process helped by simulation is effective in highlighting the main issues at the local/regional scale, as well as the more probable adaptation strategies, thus making it possible to validate issues found for other scales of analysis. We analyze the foresight processes in five companion modelling (ComMod) projects on the co-evolution of extensive husbandry systems (EHS) and territories scale in France, Senegal, Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina. The processes are broken down according to the scenario study objectives, to the method of construction and to the parameters associated with models and simulations. Comparative analysis contributes to improving the design of future ComMod experiments on EHS and reveals a more operational definition of local, regional and global issues which the EES of these regions will face in the next decade.