Une approche d’équilibre partiel pour estimer les bénéfices potentiels associés à une meilleure anticipation des prix du marché agricole

摘要

This article develops a simple partial equilibrium model to provide lower-bound estimates of the potential payoffs of providing improved agricultural market information in the form of price forecasts to producers and consumers. It then applies the model to estimate the potential benefits to farmers and small-scale traders of improved market information on maize, millet, sorghum and paddy rice in Mali. The potential value of information is estimated as the reduction in deadweight loss when farmers and small-scale traders with rational expectations respond to hypothetical improved price forecasts from Market Information Systems (MIS). The study finds that potential benefits from improved information, which can also be viewed as a reduction of cost from being off the equilibrium price and quantity, are greater when there is high uncertainty about future prices, high own-price elasticity of supply, low own-price elasticity of demand, and high value of crop output. The study suggests that crop-specific MIS and MIS that provide region-specific information, based on local area supply and demand responses to prices, have potentially higher returns than national uniformly distributed MIS covering a wide range of commodities in the country.