Prediction of corrections for the Polish time scale UTC(PL) using artificial neural networks

摘要

In this paper, the effectiveness of using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for predicting the corrections of the Polish time scale UTC(PL) (Universal Coordinated Time) is presented. In particular, prediction results for the different types of neural networks, i.e., the MLP (MultiLayer Perceprton), the RBF (Radial Basis Function) and the GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) are shown. The main advantages and disadvantages of using such types of neural networks are discussed. The prediction of corrections is performed using two methods: the time series analysis method and the regression method. The input data were prepared suitable for the above mentioned methods, based on two time series, ts1 and ts2. The designation of prediction errors for specified days and the influence of data quantity for the prediction error are considered. The paper consists of five sections. After Introduction, in Sec. 2, the theoretical background for different types of neural networks is presented. Section 3 shows data preparation for the appropriate type of neural network. The experimental results are presented in Sec. 4. Finally, Sec. 5 concludes the paper.