A model for predicting bacteremia in patients with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia: a retrospective observational study

摘要

Pneumococcal pneumonia causes high morbidity and mortality among adults. This study aimed to identify risk factors for bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia, and to construct a prediction model for the development of bacteremia in patients with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia. We retrospectively analyzed data from patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumococcal pneumonia between April 2007 and August 2015. Logistic regression models were applied to detect risk factors for pneumococcal bacteremia, and a receiver operating characteristic curve was used to devise a prediction model. Based on the results of sputum cultures, urine antigen tests, and/or blood cultures, 389 patients were diagnosed with pneumococcal pneumonia, 46 of whom had bacteremia. In the multivariate analysis, age 20?mg/dL were identified as independent risk factors for the development of pneumococcal bacteremia. The bacteremia prediction score based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis had a sensitivity of 0.74 and a specificity of 0.78 in patients with two risk factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.77 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.70–0.85). Age?