CYBERNETIC MODEL (LOPI) SIMULATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC DYNAMICS OF CROATIAN POPULATION

摘要

The purpose of our research was to assess the actual contribution and the potential uses of the cybernetic approach to understanding and predicting demographic processes. Methodological premise used was that anthropologically relevant aspects of population change could be expressed as quantitative cybernetic relations. Conducted simulations were based on demographic data for population of the Republic of Croatia. Cybernetic model (LOPI) simulations achieve 90% congruence with recorded population dynamics over a period of several hundred years. Explanatory and predictive forces of the LOPI model are discussed for understanding complexity of emergent phenomena - interaction between genetic kinship, environment, resources, and socio-cultural factors.