Where is the Global Economy Heading?

摘要

This article develops a forecast of the US economy, with implications for the rest of the world. Although it could be called a 'worst case' scenario, it is a highly plausible one. The approach is post-Keynesian, and focuses on the imbalances in the US and world economies. Three central factors are emphasized: the increasingly skewed distribution of income world-wide, and the resulting increases in liquidity, on the one hand, and credit-dependent consumer demand, on the other. The author believes that the US housing crisis marks the turning point of the credit cycle and portends a serious and possibly prolonged recession in the US and (at least) a slow-down in the world economy.