Modelling patterns of burglary on street networks

摘要

A fundamental issue in crime prevention is the efficient deployment of resources and the effective targeting of interventions, both of which require some form of prediction of future crime. One crime for which this is feasible is burglary, the distinctive spatio-temporal signatures of which can be exploited to inform predictions. Mathematical models in particular are capable of both encoding concisely the theoretical foundations of criminal behaviour and allowing the quantitative analysis of specific scenarios, and their capacity to reproduce the general patterns of burglary suggests that the approach has considerable potential. Previous models, however, are situated on simplified representations of space and do not reflect realistically the built environment in which crime takes place; specifically, they do not incorporate urban street networks. Such networks are fundamental to situational theories of crime, in the sense that they determine the configuration of urban space and, therefore, shape those human activity patterns which are thought to give rise to crime. Furthermore, streets are the natural domain for many policing activities, and their structure is determined by planning decisions, so that insight into their relationship with crime is likely to be of immediate practical use. With this in mind, this paper presents a mathematical model of crime which is explicitly situated on a street network. After discussing theoretical considerations and specifying the model itself, examples of typical networks are explored.