Liner market: Covid-19 and beyond

摘要

Without the numbers, it is difficult to put into words the impact of the Covid-19 coronavirus on the container markets. Fortunately, Clarkson Research Services (CRS) recognised this problem and has now produced Covid-19: Shipping Market Impact Tracker. It shows that as at the end of July 2020, the World Health Organisation was reporting over 155,000 new Covid-19 cases. Rapid intervention took place and China, the initial epicentre of the outbreak, created the first episode of lockdown, which then spread around the world. Global GDP growth, the lead indicator for seaborne trade, was forecast as a respectable 2.9% in 2019 and actually rose to 3.3% in January 2020. April 2020 is generally seen as the first month to show the true impact of Covid-19; GDP growth fell to -3.0%. Since then, GDP forecasts have continued to go downward and at the halfway point of 2020, GDP growth was down sharply to -8.2%. The impact of Covid-19 on ocean carriers, owners of container ships, operators and the supply chain as a whole has been stark. On the container ship side, pre-Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic, the idle tonnage in 2019 represented 5.4% of the available fleet TEU. As the Shockwave from the impact spread, the idle fleet rose to 11.1% in March 2020, according to CRS. At the mid-point in the year, the idle fleet is 9.8%.