QUARTERLY OUTPUT LEVELS THROUGH TO Q4 2022

摘要

The charts below show how quickly selected economies are forecast to restore their LEVELS of output to pre-pandemic levels. We take our latest Quarter-by-Quarter Real GDP consensus forecasts through to Q4 2022. The base has been set at Q3 2019=100 and the estimated levels thereafter derived from y-o-y quarterly consensus forecasts (for the US these are calculated using formula from the q-o-q annualized consensus forecasts). To ensure consistency, real, or inflation-adjusted seasonally-adjusted GDP data has been used. Latest quarterly GDP forecasts are used to establish Quarterly Output Index Levels with Q3 2019=100 as the pre-crisis base quarter. The 'Nike swoosh' pattern of a slow recovery coming out of the sharp pandemic-induced decline can be seen in the charts above. For some, like the United Kingdom, the trajectory seems to be more like a lopsided 'W' following a second wave of Covid infections and lockdowns in Q4 2020, which once again impacted people-facing services like retail, accommodation and hospitality. GDP contracted, raising the risk of a second technical recession in less than a year. The good news is that vaccination rollout in the United States and United Kingdom continues rapidly. In the European Union, the rollout is starting to gain traction, although the EU has been criticised for getting off to a slow start. In output level terms, the US, Germany and Canada are expected to recover their levels by Q4 2021. This is notably sooner than Q2 2022, our estimation three months' ago. Japan, France, the UK and Spain will take a bit longer to regain 2019 output levels, with Italian GDP, having been hollowed out by almost a decade of fiscal austerity, not expected to re-capture pre-pandemic levels over the forecast horizon. Quarterly inflation outturns (charts below) show big rebounds expected for y-o-y inflation in 2021 and 2022, due to base-year effects (2020 saw CPI plummet). A VAT rise in Germany is boosting that country's inflation outlook noticeably. Eurostat's new HICP weights are also expected to distort the inflation picture, based on 2020 consumption patterns which saw big, unexpected changes.