On a new statistical wave generator based on atmospheric circulation patterns and its applications to coastal shoreline evolution

摘要

Stochastic models have a long history in the simulation of synthetic data sequences for application to risk assessment e.g. in stochastic hydrology. Their use in coastal engineering has recently grown. In this study we illustrate some typical coastal vulnerability applications of a recently developed stochastic wave climate model that has links to synoptic scale atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). Wave data are explicitly used to delineate the links to CPs. This modelling approach allows for simulating long continuous time series of waves that are linked to their associated CPs. The time series can be used for various types of coastal vulnerability assessments as a new management tool. The east coast of South Africa is used as a case study. The results demonstrate the robustness of the modelling technique and the potential applications in coastal vulnerability assessments. The link to CPs facilitates the application of these methods to the assessment of future climate changes on coastal vulnerability.