The Price and Trading Volume Dynamics Relationship in the EEX Power Market: A Wavelet Modeling

摘要

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between power spot prices and related trading volumes in one of the most emergent energy markets. Traditionally, investigating the bivariate stochastic processes has been dominated by linear econo-metrical methods that proved helpful especially in finance. However, when dealing with intradaily power data, we cannot rely on models developed for financial or other commodity markets. Therefore, wavelet transforms are applied for power markets data to search for and decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns existing between the variables. Given its ability to decompose the time series into their time scale components and thus to reveal structure at different time horizons, wavelets are useful in analyzing situations in which the degree of association between processes is likely to change with the time-horizon. Therefore, a wavelet-based cross-analysis is performed between prices and trading volume time series. On the same basis, causality tests and out-of-sample forecasting tasks are carried out to empirically the strong relationship between the two investigated time series.