Strategic Adjustment of China’s Power Generation Capacity Structure Under the Constraint of Carbon Emission

摘要

China’s power generation capacity structure should be adjusted due to the needs to reduce (hbox {CO}_{2}) emissions. Now, we should take carbon dioxide emissions as a constraint in satisfying the electricity demand. Through an optimization model, the optimal power generation capacity structure under the constraint of carbon dioxide emission reduction is achieved. Also, the macroeconomic influences are accessed through a computable general equilibrium model, which results from the increment of power generation costs owing to adjustment of power generation capacity structure. The results show that, the implementation of renewable energy planning has significant positive effects on (hbox {CO}_{2}) emission reduction. Nevertheless, the constraint of carbon dioxide emissions will change the power generation capacity structure as well as the power generation costs, and consequently has negative impacts on the macro-economy. It is worth noting that at current stage, many important industries in China are highly reliant on coal and thermal power. As a result, the potential for emission reduction by adjusting power generation capacity structure seems to decrease.