Model Selection for Vector Autoregressive Processes via Adaptive Lasso

摘要

Determination of the best subset is an important step in vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. Traditional methods either conduct subset selection and parameter estimation separately or compute expensively. In this article, we propose a VAR model selection procedure using adaptive Lasso, for it is computational efficient and can select subset and estimate parameters simultaneously. By proper choice of tuning parameters, we can choose the correct subset and obtain the asymptotic normality of the non zero parameters. Simulation studies and real data analysis show that adaptive Lasso performs better than existing methods in VAR model fitting and prediction.