The Spiral of Silence and Conflict Avoidance: Examining Antecedents of Opinion Expression Concerning the U.S. Military Buildup in the Pacific Island of Guam

摘要

The present study examines the role of local news media in influencing perceived public support for a controversial political issue, and merges a key proposition of the spiral of silence theory with literature on conflict avoidance to analyze antecedents of political outspokenness among a representative sample of registered voters in the Western Pacific Island of Guam. Respondents were asked about their perceptions of local news media and public support for, and willingness to express opinions about, the relocation of roughly 8,600 U.S. Marines and about 10,000 of their dependents and civilian support from Okinawa, Japan to Guam. Results show that perceived support from local news media predicted perceived public support. Perceived public support for one's opinions positively predicted, and conflict avoidance negatively predicted, willingness to express opinions. The positive association between perceived public support for one's opinions and willingness to express opinions was stronger among those who had higher conflict avoidance than those who had lower conflict avoidance.