Regional coastal flood risk assessment for a tidally dominant, natural coastal setting: North Norfolk, southern North Sea

摘要

A Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) provides two levels of coastal risk and vulnerability assessment, by combining information on the spatially variable hazard and exposure. In Phase 1, areas of greatest risk or 'hot spots' are identified. In Phase 2, these hotspots are then analysed in greater detail to identify both direct and indirect extreme event impacts. This approach was applied to the barrier coastline of North Norfolk, eastern England. The CRAF identified high risk coastal hotspots on the basis of both hazard impacts (swash regime (tide + surge + wave runup) and overwash/terrestrial inundation regimes) from a 1 in 115 year return period storm and a range of land use, infrastructure, economic and social vulnerability indicators. Hazard extents and hazard severity, in some locations modified by the presence of intertidal saltmarsh, were calculated for 45, 1-2 km wide sections along the topographically complex coast. When combined with five exposure indicators, eight hotspots were identified along the 45 km long frontage. In a 2nd phase, two of these hotspots, one a chain of small villages (Brancaster/Brancaster Staithe/Burnham Deepdale) and one a small town (Wells-next-the-Sea), were compared in more detail using a suite of coastal inundation and impact assessment models to determine both direct and indirect impacts. Hazards at this higher resolution were calculated using the 1D process-based XBeach model and the 2D LISFLOOD inundation model. Vulnerability to the hazards was calculated using the INDRA (Integrated Disruption Assessment) model with comparison of the two hotspots through the use of a Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA). The selection of hazard hotspots and comparison of hotspots using these techniques allows areas at greatest risk to be identified, of vital importance for coastal management and resource allocation.