Trends in water demand and water availability for power plants—scenario analyses for the German capital Berlin

摘要

The availability of electric power is an important prerequisite for the development or maintenance of high living standards. Global change, including socio-economic change and climate change, is a challenge for those who have to deal with the long-term management of thermoelectric power plants. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short and medium term. In the long term, the water demand will change as old units are retired and new generating units are built. The present paper analyses the effects of global change and options for adapting to water shortages for power plants in the German capital Berlin in the short and long term. The interconnection between power plants, i.e. water demand, and water resources management, i.e. water availability, is described. Using different models, scenarios of socio-economic and climate change are analysed. One finding is that by changing the cooling system of power plants from a once-through system to a closed-circuit cooling system the vulnerability of power plants can be reduced considerably. Such modified cooling systems also are much more robust with respect to the effects of climate change and declining streamflows due to human activities in the basin under study. Notwithstanding the possible adaptations analysed for power plants in Berlin, increased economic costs are expected due to declining streamflows and higher water temperatures.