Forecast of solar power: a key to power management and environmental protection

摘要

Power management through the day and through different seasons in the year is a major challenge in cities around the world as the power generation is from a mix of resources. It is difficult to predict, a priori, the yield from renewable resources on a particular day to tune the fossil fuel fired generators leading to less control of atmospheric pollution from these plants. In this paper, we present a model to predict the yield from a solar photovoltaic (SPV) plant based on the weather forecast in the location. This model can be deployed in the management of distributed energy generation system consisting of SPV systems. The deviations of this model from the measured values are < 15 % for most of the days. The methodology adopted in arriving at this model can be used in any location. This model is simple to use as it uses performance data from a SPV plant in a location and the weather forecast data available in the public domain. Hence, it would be a powerful tool for private solar power producers availing net-metering facility.