Rain and Raids Revisited: Disaggregating Ethnic Group Livestock Raiding in the Ethiopian-Kenyan Border Region

摘要

Focusing on livestock raiding, a major form of violence in arid and semiarid regions, we evaluate the relationship between rainfall and intensity of violence, disaggregating ethnic groups that have somewhat different subsistence patterns. We do so to try to resolve previously published results and conclusions that appear contradictory - some research finding livestock violence higher in wet times suggestive of more violence in times of plenty; others finding violence higher in dry times suggestive of greater scarcity. Using rainfall from NASA and violence data from ACLED for the years 1998-2009, we looked at the patterns of livestock-related violence for six different ethnic groups that have a home in the area in and around Marsabit district of Kenya. Different ethnic groups appear to have somewhat different patterns and we suggest how some of their cultural differences may explain these patterns. However, for most groups, intense violence is more common in drier times.