A proposed risk-based approach in assessing port infrastructure adaptation options to climate change

摘要

The complex nature of climate risks presents major difficulties in developing a one-size-fits-all solution for port infrastructure adaptation, considering that exposure to climate risks differs substantially between geographical locations, and the nature, functions and strategic objectives of these ports. For this reason, assessing risks using linear tools for complex non-linear systems is not appropriate. A need for a complex non-linear tools system to assess risk severity and develop adaptation strategies is therefore necessary. In many instances, adaptation is left to the individual prerogatives of line management. A need to minimise subjectivity and ensure reliability, accuracy and consistency throughout the decision-making process is essential in the early planning stages of port development. This research aims to develop a holistic risk-based three-tier (Policy-Management-Technology) port infrastructure adaptation framework; and thereafter to demonstrate the conceptual model at the new dig-out port under development in the City of Durban. Central to this process will be establishing recognition of the idea that responding to climate change is not a constraint, but rather an essential underpinning of port infrastructure development.