Hydrologic Model Could Improve River Simulation, Flood Prediction Capabilities

摘要

AHYDROLOGIC MODEL under development by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin and International Business Machines Corporation (IBM), of Armonk, New York, is reputed to be much faster and more stable than existing models used to simulate large river networks, raising the possibility of issuing flood warnings far earlier than is currently possible. By linking the model to weather and runoff data, the researchers also expect to be able to provide much more precise flood warnings along individual waterways, particularly in urban areas. In creating the model, its developers aimed to overcome a long-standing "chicken-and-egg problem" that has stymied efforts to model large river networks, says Ben Hodges, Ph.D., A.M.ASCE, an associate professor in the civil, architectural, and environmental engineering department at the University of Texas and a member of the research team developing the model. Modeling a river network requires a "huge amount of data," Hodges notes, but existing models are not fast enough to accommodate such amounts. For users and developers of models, the situation poses a dilemma, Hodges explains. "Why would we gather all that data if we don't have a model that's fast enough to use it?" he asks. "Conversely, why would we build a model fast enough to use [the data] when there's no data to run it?"