Simulation of synthetic climate at local scale as a mean to assess the impact of climate change on infrastructures

摘要

A global modelling approach for estimating the climate influence on corrosion activity in reinforced concrete is developed. It combines: (a) the identification of statistical properties of climates in various temperate regions, and the development of a synthetic simulator able to reproduce its dominant patterns, (b) the identification of an empirical corrosion activity model, based on the analysis of experimental data, highlighting the respective influence of temperature and humidity. Synthetic simulations combining these two models are carried out. They show the complexity of the interactions, since the influence of temperature and humidity may be adverse, and the interest to describe both random fluctuations at daily scale and at seasonal scale. They confirm that monitoring of corrosion must account for this time variability and propose a way to estimate average corrosion even with measurements which would remain limited to a short period. Synthetic simulations are also used for estimating the influence of a global warming scenario on the corrosion activity. A global increase of about 38% of corrosion activity has been estimated in response to an average temperature elevation of 3℃.