An adaptive methodology for risk classification of small homogeneous earthfill embankment dams integrating climate change projections

摘要

This paper presents the application of the advanced probabilistic slope stability model with precipitation effects developed to assess the performance of small homogeneous earthfill embankment dam slopes, when exposed to future seasonal precipitation scenarios. Here, the UK's latest probabilistic climate model known as UKCP09 is applied. To reflect the critical conditions conducive to slope failure, a benchmark has been developed to identify the change, if any, in the risk classification of the slope's performance level due to precipitation. Thus, enabling the reassessment of the dam's risk classification, as categorised by the Flood and Water Management Act 2010. Such an approach could therefore be well placed to support and enhance the decision-making process, its impact on the public, especially in relation to future climate effects.