How much greenhouse gas can each global inhabitant emit while attaining the Paris Agreement temperature limit goal? The equity dilemma in sharing the global climate budget to 2100

摘要

Decisions taken under the Paris Agreement of the UNFCCC do not clarify how the principle of equity is to be operationalized. Proper consideration of different national circumstances is of paramount importance when designing any multilateral agreements, such as the Paris Agreement . Here, a methodology is presented that implements the equity principle in sharing the global climate budget among countries on the basis of their national circumstances identified by socio-economic factors such as the population size, the per-capita gross domestic product and the current net GHG emission, and physical factors such as the population density and the average temperature. The historical responsibility for net GHG emission since 1990 is dealt with by the financial commitments made by developed countries. The impact of international trade on actual net GHG emission associated with consumption of goods is deemed compensated by the carbon rights underlying the production of such traded goods. Results obtained show that without a consideration of national circumstances, large emitters can claim a larger quota. Nevertheless, national circumstances change over time because of social and economic development as well as because technological improvements. Consequently, quotas have to be recalculated over time (e.g. at each global stocktake).