Between a cap and a higher price: Modelling the price of dairy quotas under price ceiling legislation

摘要

This paper considers various policy alternatives to price ceiling legislation in the market for production quotas in the dairy farming sector in Quebec. I develop a model of farmers' demand for quotas and estimate a structural parameter that is required for the counterfactual experiments. Using my econometric results and the modelled equilibrium price, I estimate the price of dairy quotas over the period 1993-2011. The counterfactual experiments indicate that the price of quotas could be reduced to the ceiling price through a 4.16% expansion of the aggregate supply of quotas, or through moderate trade liberalization of Canadian dairy products.