Democratic pollster Anna Green-berg has some advice for Presi-dential candidates and campaign-watchers alike: Don't pay too much attention to the early polls. "At this point," she says, "they pick up nothing but name recognition." So if nationwide surveys about the nine Democratic hopefuls for 2004 are unreliable predictors, how do you figure out what's going on six months before the first votes are cast in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses? Who's real? Who's delusional? Who'll be a footnote a fortnight into the new year? There is a way. The Democrats are already sweating through an invisible primary that could well determine the nomination. Indeed, political veterans are closely monitoring three indicators that are reliable oracles of political fortunes: fund-raising, organization, and buzz.
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