The Power of Productivity: Why This Recovery Will Roll On

摘要

From the beginning, this economic recovery has felt different. Officially, it began back in November, 2001. But it has only been in the past few months that growth has been strong enough for Corporate America to hang out the "For Hire" signs and take on more workers. And now, just as the job market has turned up, fears are mounting in financial markets that an inflationary brew of rising interest rates and surging oil prices will prematurely cut short the growth and the upswing in hiring. It doesn't have to be that way. Indeed, such fears are proba- bly misplaced. Thar s because the elongated start of the recovery means that the economy probably has a lot more room to run before it encounters a dangerous spurt in inflation. The key is productivity growth. It has been running at a remarkable 4.6% annual rate since the end of the recession and is the main reason the recovery has been so unusual.