The Surprising finale to 2003―the double wowie of capturing Saddam Hussein just as the Dow Jones industrial average surged past 10,000―is in perfect keeping with a year fall of surprises. In January, America was facing an annas horribilis mired in a weak, jobless recovery and worry over a war in the Middle East. By December, the annas had turned mirabilis, with the economy powering ahead and prospects for Iraq improving. No one could have predicted this and, as an army of prognosticators assembles to tell us what will happen in 2004, it may be wise to take a moment to consider all the unexpected events of the previous 12 months. Even the most thoughtful forecasts (including BusinessWeek's current issue, "Where to Invest in 2004") cannot fully take into account the wild swings of the business cycle, the rise and fall of nations, or the foibles of politicians.
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