IT'S A ROLE ONCE FILLED BY IBM and later by Microsoft Corp. Today, tech's 800-pound gorilla is Google Inc. A mere mention by one of its executives of a potential new product is enough to send shivers through competitors and drive analysts and the press scurrying to sift through the ramifications. When Google launched an instant-messaging program late last year, tech watchers buzzed over the looming confrontation with America Online, Yahoo!, and Microsoft. Google's launch of online spreadsheet software in June was deemed a shot across the bow of Microsoft Excel. And when Google prepped for its June 29 debut of Google Checkout, an online payment system that will compete with eBay Inc.'s PayPal, several headlines blared: "Google Readies PayPal-Killer." But if you cut through the hype, Google's intimidation factor quickly fizzles. An analysis of some two dozen new ventures launched over the past four years shows that Google has yet to establish a single market leader outside its core search business, where it continues to chew up Microsoft and Yahoo.
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