Trustworthy—Not Alternative—Statistics

摘要

Donald Trump's penchant for "alternative facts" raises a troubling question: What if the same instinct leads him to pressure government agencies-the ones that track everything from jobs to air quality-into producing data to support whatever he wants to believe? If he won't draw the line, Congress should. Two recent cases suggest where things may be headed. Trump's officials have considered changing the way they calculate foreign-trade balances, turning some surpluses into deficits and bolstering the president's case for tearing up free-trade deals. In another, the administration instructed its economists to forecast U.S. growth rates a full percentage point higher than consensus estimates-an alteration that, if included in Trump's final budget proposal, would mask the effect of his tax cuts and spending plans on the nation's finances.