Monetary policy and risk management at a time of low inflation and low unemployment

摘要

I do not see it as likely that the Phillips curve is dead, or that it will soon exact revenge. It is more likely that many factors, including better conduct of monetary policy over the past few decades, have greatly reduced, but not eliminated, the effects that tight labor markets have on inflation. However, no one fully understands the nature of these changes or the role they play in the current context. Common sense suggests we should beware when forecasts predict events seldom before observed in the economy.