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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Thailand

机译:泰国的概率地震灾害评估

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A set of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Thailand has been derived using procedures developed for the latest US National Seismic Hazard Maps. In contrast to earlier hazard maps for this region, which are mostly computed using seismic source zone delineations, the presented maps are based on the combination of smoothed gridded seismicity, crustal-fault, and subduction source models. Thailand’s composite earthquake catalogue is revisited and expanded, covering a study area limited by 0°–30°N Latitude and 88°–110°E Longitude and the instrumental period from 1912 to 2007. The long-term slip rates and estimates of earthquake size from paleoseismological studies are incorporated through a crustal fault source model. Furthermore, the subduction source model is used to model the megathrust Sunda subduction zones, with variable characteristics along the strike of the faults. Epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration by the logic tree framework incorporating basic quantities, such as different source modelling, maximum cut-off magnitudes and ground motion prediction equations. The ground motion hazard map is presented over a 10 km grid in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2, 1.0, and 2.0 undamped natural periods and a 5% critical damping ratio for 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The presented maps give expected ground motions that are based on more extensive data sources than applied in the development of previous maps. The main findings are that northern and western Thailand are subjected to the highest hazard. The largest contributors to short- and long-period ground motion hazard in the Bangkok region are from the nearby active faults and Sunda subduction zones, respectively.
机译:使用针对最新的美国国家地震灾害图开发的程序,得出了泰国的一组概率地震灾害图。与该地区较早的危害图(通常使用地震震源区划定图来计算)不同,本图是基于平滑网格化地震活动性,地壳断层和俯冲震源模型的组合而得出的。重新审查和扩大了泰国的综合地震目录,涵盖的研究区域受纬度0°–30°N和东经88°–110°E限制,并且是1912年至2007年的仪器期。长期滑动率和地震规模估计通过地壳断层源模型整合了古地震学的研究成果。此外,俯冲源模型被用来模拟大推力Sun他俯冲带,沿着断层走向具有可变的特征。逻辑树框架考虑了基本的不确定性,包括基本的不确定性,例如不同的源模型,最大截止量和地面运动预测方程。在10 km的网格上以0.2、1.0和2.0的无阻尼自然周期的峰值地面加速度和频谱加速度以及在50年内超过10%和2%的超过概率的5%临界阻尼比显示了地面运动危害图。所呈现的地图给出了比以前的地图开发中所应用的更多的数据源为基础的预期地面运动。主要发现是,泰国北部和西部受到的危害最大。曼谷地区造成短期和长期地面运动危害的最大因素分别来自附近的活动断层和Sun他俯冲带。

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