Who Will Fare Best if a Slowdown Occurs?

摘要

Lately, there has been a lot of speculation over how hard the economy will be hit by an economic downturn. While many soothsayers are predicting gloom if a worldwide slowdown hits, other experts, like chief global investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, David Bowers, insists, "These predictions, which have been going on for years, are overblown and completely out of focus." Today, more people are employed than ever before, housing starts are up, inventories are reasonably normal (no overstock) and industrial profits are good for most companies. There are some soft spots, but there always have been. So what's different now? The answer is that our prosperity now depends in part on global condi- tions. Turmoil in the Middle East, high oil prices and a slow, post-Asian crisis recovery has upset the economic situation. Slowdown or not, it would be advisable to remember one Wall Street Journal headline: (10/23/00) "It's Easy to be Smart in Boom Times. Here are Tips for Slowdowns."