The application of a Delphi technique in the linear programming optimization of future renewable energy options for India

摘要

The role of renewable energy resources in developing countries has increased considerably over the last decade. Technological developments are so advanced that the renewables can be conveniently substituted for commercial energy sources. The extent to which renewable energy could be substituted in the commercial energy scene in respect of environment and social impact is discussed in this paper. An optimal renewable energy mathematical (OREM) model will be developed for the substitution of renewable energy sources in India over the years 2010―11, 2015―16 and 2020―21. It is a linear programming model, which allocates optimal renewable energy sources for different end-uses such as lighting, cooking, pumping, heating, cooling and transportation. The model was developed with the objective of minimizing cost/efficiency ratio based on social acceptance, reliability, demand and potential constraints. The model predicts that around 25% of the total energy consumed will be from renewable energy sources by the year 2020―21. It was found that at optimal condition, for lighting end-use, solar PV and biogas electricity conversion could be used to an extent of 520 and 750 PJ, respectively. Similarly, the optimal renewable energy sources for other end-uses were determined by running OREM model. The potential for biomass, biogas, firewood and ethanol were varied in the model and different renewable energy distribution patterns were obtained. When the potential of these resources are increased in the model, the contribution of solar energy systems would decrease as they are expensive. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate the OREM model. The coefficient of sensitivity has been obtained for the variation of renewable energy demand, social acceptance and potential of renewable energy sources. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the OREM model is very sensitive with regard to variation of different parameters in the model. This model can be used in the formation of energy strategies in India.