Simulating possible impacts of roundwood procurement problems in Austria on wood-based energy production and forest-based industries

摘要

Wooden biomass is the main source for energy based on biomass in Austria. Only a part of the wooden biomass for energy directly originates in forests. Other major sources include post-consumer wood and by-products of the Austrian forest-based industries. Consumption of wooden biomass has been growing much more than domestic production, forest-based industries are building up capacities in neighbouring countries, leaving less raw materials for exports to Austria than in the decades before. The authors have assessed the possible effects of a wood raw material shortage with a System-Dynamics simulation model of the Austrian forest-based sector (FOHOW). The model covers the interactions between the general economy and the forest-based sector, including wood-based energy. The simulation period ranged from 2006 to 2025. Beside a business as usual scenario, scenarios with a sawlog import reduction, a sawmill capacity reduction as well as a paper and panel capacity reduction were simulated. Probably the most notable result of the analysis is the strong impact of the sawmill industry on the fuelwood prices and availability. Despite increased fuelwood supply from forests, reduction of sawmill capacity will lead to the inability of fully meeting renewable energy policy objectives due to a shortage of sawmill residues. With exemption of the panel & paper capacity reduction scenario all other scenarios project a slight reduction of growing stock until 2025. But after decades of harvest below the increment such a development is not per se unsustainable. It can be expected that a shift in the Austrian forests towards younger stands will slightly increase the average increment.