Investigating the future supply distribution of industrial grade wood pellets in the global bioenergy market

摘要

Many factors may globally affect the trade pattern for industrial-grade wood pellets, with one such factor being the decision strategies by potential buyers and suppliers to optimize feedstock price and volume. This study investigated the industrial-grade wood pellet market assuming potential buyers and suppliers optimize their decision independently. A non-cooperative, bi-level, Stackelberg, leader-follower game model was developed to predict potential resource distribution in global competitive feedstock markets for industrial-grade wood pellets. Based on historic trade patterns and expected future production and demand structures, a set of potential buyers and suppliers of industrial-grade wood pellets were identified for 2022, 2030, and 2040. Projected trade volume and patterns among buyers and suppliers were identified in different scenarios. Potential buyers for US-sourced industrial grade-wood pellet were identified. Results shows that the expected demand growth from the European Union, South Korea, and Japan until the year 2030 limits the resources available to the USA. Competitive prices offered by international buyers cause the US industry to primarily sell overseas. International trade could contribute to 83.4% of the total volume in 2022 and 90.2% of the total trade value in 2022. High-demand markets with a respective high willingness-to-pay dominate international trade.