Wheat supply,demand and pricing trends

摘要

A broker's role is to examine and interpret trends, not to make predictions. There is no crystal ball, and in commodities the only certainty is uncertainty. This being said, there are some compelling conclusions that can be drawn from the trends of the last 10-15 years. First, production has risen due to an upward trend in average crop yield and increasing acreage in the first half of the 20th century. Second, wheat demand has also consistently risen in the past 10 years. Finally, the average price of wheat has increased as well. The task at hand is to look at what these factors mean for wheat and the legitimacy of wheat as a feedstock for biofuel.