Derivation of scaled design premises for future vehicle concepts based on a forecast of travel demand using the example of a commercial fully automated on‑demand fleet

摘要

This paper presents an approach for linking the vehicle concept design in the early phase of development with findingsfrom the forecast of mobility behavior under the boundary conditions of a future scenario for Germany. The focus is on anobjective and data-based methodology for the derivation of design premises for vehicle concepts, illustrated by using theexample of a commercial fully automated on-demand fleet. Today, vehicle concepts are designed on the basis of technicalpremises derived from the customer requirements of the relevant target group determined by market research and the competitivecomparison. Technological trends (e.g., fully automated driving) and business model innovations (e.g., mobility asa service) have the potential to change the individual mobility behavior of users significantly so that today’s vehicle conceptswill no longer meet the future requirements. Thus, the conventional approach of determining design premises for vehicleconcepts alone may no longer be appropriate. Therefore, as the starting point of the overall methodology, the future mobilitybehavior is simulated in an aspatial travel demand model. By converting the simulated mobility behavior into relevantdesign premises and using a cluster analysis adapted for the specific application case, total vehicle concepts are objectivelyderived and optimized regarding the coverage of mobility needs. The concepts are scaled taking technical concept leapsinto account. This application example shows that almost 85% of urban autonomous car sharing trips can be covered using avehicle concept with significantly reduced requirements. Based on the scaled vehicle portfolio and the respective relevanceof covering mobility needs, a recommendation for an efficient fleet design can be made.