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The Difficulties in Predicting Future Warfare

机译:预测未来战争的困难

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The major trend in future warfare will continue to be its unpredictability. Limitations in our thinking are amplified by the effects of 'unknown unknowns', complexity, chance, stress, surprise and change. Yet, when considering future trends in warfare, we seem more often than not to ignore the influence of these factors and only forecast a continuation of the status quo, perhaps with minor 'tweaking'. But if we apply knowledge of how these known limitations affect forecasting, we stand a better chance of devising more relevant future trends.
机译:未来战争的主要趋势将继续是其不可预测性。 “未知未知数”,复杂性,机会,压力,惊奇和变化的影响加剧了我们思维的局限性。但是,在考虑战争的未来趋势时,我们似乎常常会忽略这些因素的影响,而只是预测现状的延续,也许会稍作“调整”。但是,如果我们应用这些已知限制如何影响预测的知识,则我们更有可能设计出更相关的未来趋势。

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