Simulating southwestern U.S. desert dust influences on supercell thunderstorms

摘要

Three-dimensional numerical simulations were performed to evaluate potential southwestern U.S. dust indirect microphysical and direct radiative impacts on a real severe storms outbreak. Increased solar absorption within the dust plume led to modest increases in pre-storm atmospheric stability at low levels, resulting in weaker convective updrafts and less widespread precipitation. Dust microphysical impacts on convection were minor in comparison, due in part to the lofted dust concentrations being relatively few in number when compared to the background (non-dust) aerosol population. While dust preferentially serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) versus giant CCN had opposing effects on warm rain production, both scenarios resulted in ample supercooled water and subsequent glaciation aloft, yielding larger graupel and hail. Associated latent heating from condensation and freezing contributed little to overall updraft invigoration. With reduced rain production overall, the simulations that included dust effects experienced slightly reduced grid-cumulative precipitation and notably warmer and spatially smaller cold pools. Dust serving as ice nucleating particles did not appear to play a significant role. The presence of dust ultimately reduced the number of supercells produced but allowed for supercell evolution characterized by consistently higher values of relative vertical vorticity within simulated mesocyclones. Dust radiative and microphysical effects were relatively small in magnitude when compared to those from altering the background convective available potential energy and vertical wind shear. It is difficult to generalize such findings from a single event, however, due to a number of case-specific environmental factors. These include the nature of the low-level moisture advection and characteristics of the background aerosol distribution.