Application of user-oriented measure of effectiveness to transport and dispersion model predictions of the European tracer experiment

摘要

In October 1994, the tracer gas perfluoro-methyl-cyclohexane (PMCH) was released over a 12-h period from a location in northwestern France and tracked at 168 sampling locations in 17 countries across Europe. This release, known as the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX), resulted in the collection of a wealth of data. The authors have obtained 46 sets of transport and dispersion predictions associated with models from 17 countries from the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission as well as the PMCH sampling data. This paper compares predictions and observations, paired in space and time, via the application of a previously developed user-oriented measure of effectiveness (MOE). First, model predictions of ETEX are compared using the MOE and "ranked" by a variety of notional user criteria. The development of these criteria are described. Next, the sensitivity of MOE estimates to any single sampler location is analyzed and the use of the MOE to explore the time-dependence of model performance is described. Finally, the model prediction rankings described in this work are briefly compared with previous related research.