Estimation of road transportation emissions in Spain from 1988 to 1999 using COPERT III program

摘要

This paper describes the results of a study of pollutant emissions by road traffic in Spain during the period 1988―1999. The study has covered two main phases: input data compilation and program execution (COPERT III). The first has been conditioned by the requirements imposed by the software in terms of de-aggregated data, which were not available at first, and required estimation. Adequate models and algorithms were developed, establishing different hypotheses based on statistical criteria and on current literature. They provided the input data for COPERT III and constitute a result in themselves, offering reliable estimations on number of vehicles and other aspects. The final result of the study has been the estimates of the evolution of pollutant emissions during the period of study. A series for each particular pollutant has been obtained. Based on these results, the effects of the different regulations introduced and of the increase of mobility during the period can be observed qualitatively and quantitatively. Vehicle renewal, more strict regulation of fuel composition and of vehicle emissions have significantly reduced local, sulphur and lead-compound emissions, while mainly due to the increase in mobility, a sustained growth in global emissions has taken place.